Express Entry 2025: Key Trends and Predictions for Aspiring Immigrants


As we enter mid-2025, Canada’s Express Entry immigration system continues to evolve in response to policy shifts, economic needs, and the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan. The latest draw held on May 13, 2025, issued 500 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) under the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), with a record-high Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) cut-off of 547 for this year.

This guide explores the latest trends, forecasts, and strategic insights to help prospective immigrants navigate the Express Entry system successfully.

Summary Table: Express Entry Draws Forecast and Analysis

Key Trends in 2025 Express Entry Draws

Emphasis on Canadian Experience Class (CEC)

In 2025, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has prioritized in-Canada applicants, particularly CEC candidates. As of May 7, 2025, 9,350 ITAs have been issued to CEC applicants. The focus on this group is a reflection of:

• Reduced permanent resident targets (395,000 in 2025 vs. 485,000 in 2024)
• Preference for candidates already contributing to Canada’s workforce

CEC candidates typically have strong profiles with high language proficiency and Canadian work experience, which explains the elevated CRS thresholds.

Category-Based Draws Gain Momentum

Introduced in 2023, category-based draws are now a regular part of the Express Entry landscape. These focus on candidates with specific skills, occupations, or language abilities. IRCC has set aside more than 40,000 ITAs in 2025 for category-based draws, which are held one to two times per month.

Notable 2025 Category Draws

• French Proficiency Draw (March 21): 7,500 ITAs, CRS cut-off 379
• Healthcare Draw (May 2): 500 ITAs, CRS cut-off 510
• Education Draw (May 1): 1,000 ITAs, CRS cut-off 479

French-speaking candidates benefit from significantly lower CRS thresholds. These draws help meet Canada’s goal of increasing Francophone immigration outside Quebec to 10% by 2027.

Shrinking Role of Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)

PNP draws have seen a sharp decline in 2025. With the PNP target slashed from 110,000 in 2024 to 55,000 in 2025, the number of invitations has also dropped. Only 4,079 ITAs were issued to PNP candidates by early May.

Despite reduced targets, the biweekly PNP draw frequency is expected to continue. However, high CRS cut-offs (e.g., 763 on April 14) remain due to the 600-point bonus from a provincial nomination.

Removal of Job Offer Points

In March 2025, IRCC removed CRS points for valid job offers to combat fraudulent use of Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs). This change:

• Prevents applicants from artificially inflating scores
• Slightly lowers CRS cut-offs for some categories

However, with fewer and smaller draws, the overall impact on CRS trends has been minimal.

Smaller Draw Sizes and Higher CRS Scores

The first half of 2025 has featured fewer and smaller draws:

• Only two PNP draws in April (1,246 ITAs combined)
• The May 13 CEC draw had just 500 ITAs

This limited activity is linked to the massive backlog—over 850,000 applications are already in processing. IRCC is moving cautiously to align with reduced annual targets.

Predicting the Next Express Entry Draw (May 27–30, 2025)

Likely Draw Type

The upcoming draw is expected to be category-based due to the gap in such draws since May 2. Likely categories include:

• Healthcare: High-demand sector with last CRS cut-off at 510
• French Proficiency: Historically larger draws with lower cut-offs (360–380)
• Trades: Newer focus area, likely to have cut-offs around 450

A CEC draw is unlikely immediately following the May 13 round, and a PNP draw could occur but would likely be small.

CRS Score Forecast

CRS scores will vary by draw type:

Applicants with CRS scores below 450 should focus on category eligibility to improve chances.

ITAs and Draw Size

Expect between 500 and 2,000 ITAs depending on the draw category:

• French draws may issue up to 5,000 ITAs
• Healthcare or trades draws usually range from 500 to 1,500

IRCC has issued 34,440 ITAs as of May 13, indicating a slower pace intended to stretch across the year.

Strategies to Boost Your CRS Score in 2025

• Improve Language Scores: Particularly French proficiency
• Gain Canadian Experience: Through work or study
• Secure a Provincial Nomination: Despite reduced targets, PNPs still offer a 600-point boost
• Complete Additional Education or Training

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q. Is CRS Expected to Drop in 2025?

A. Broadly, no. CRS cut-offs are likely to remain high due to fewer invitations. However, select category-based draws may offer lower thresholds, especially for French-speaking or trades candidates.

Q. When Can I Expect the Next Express Entry Draw?

A. Based on the biweekly schedule, the next draw is expected between May 27–30, 2025. Likely a category-based draw.

Q. Can I Get PR with a 400 CRS Score?

A. Unlikely for general draws, but French proficiency or trades-focused draws may allow applicants with scores near 400 to qualify. Consider boosting your score or improving your profile for these categories.

Q. What Was the CRS Score in the Last Draw?

A. The May 13, 2025, draw had a CRS cut-off of 547 and issued 500 ITAs under the Canadian Experience Class.

Q. Where Can I Check Official Express Entry Information?

A. Visit the official IRCC site: Canada Immigration Services

Conclusion

The Express Entry landscape in 2025 is defined by unpredictability, policy shifts, and strategic targeting. With reduced immigration targets and a backlog of applications, IRCC is favoring candidates who align with Canada’s economic and social priorities—particularly those with French skills, in-demand occupations, or Canadian experience.

Applicants should remain adaptable, update their profiles regularly, and target category-based opportunities to enhance their prospects. As we approach the next draw window, candidates must be prepared to take advantage of emerging opportunities.

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